Lower volumes, higher selling prices on tap for smartphones and PCs
While consumer products feel the strain of a memory shortage, Wi-Fi and IoT infrastructure upgrades are proceeding apace
A shortage of memory chips has become the number one topic in consumer tech. As semiconductor memory makers allocate more capacity to lucrative AI infrastructure, it has become increasingly difficult and expensive for handset and PC makers to source storage components.
Fearing increased supply constraints, device makers took as much inventory as they could at the end of 2025. This made Q4 the strongest period in several years for product shipments in several verticals. Looking ahead, the memory squeeze may put a ceiling on shipment volumes and could drive average selling prices higher. Premium brands will be well positioned for this environment; budget manufacturers may suffer.
In terms of infrastructure, next-generation buildout continued apace, with Wi-Fi 7 and cellular IoT adoption accelerating. Let’s review some of the market research from last year’s final quarter.
Enterprise WLAN: Wi-Fi 7 takes larger piece of the pie
Wi-Fi infrastructure spending continued to grow at a healthy pace, with Wi-Fi 7 solutions accounting for nearly one-third of new spend.
Enterprise WLAN infrastructure revenue increased 7.8% YoY in Q3 2025 to $2.7 billion, moderating from 13.2% growth in Q2 but maintaining solid momentum, according to IDC. Wi-Fi 7 is spreading more rapidly than previous generations. It captured over 31% of dependent access point revenue in Q3 – up from 21% in Q2 and 12% in Q1. The balance was made up by Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 6.
There was growth across the major regions, with China as the main exception. Even so, the country’s modest 1.3% YoY decline represented a significant improvement on Q2’s 6.6% contraction.
Cisco retained enterprise Wi-Fi leadership, pulling in nearly $1 billion in revenue for the quarter to remain significantly ahead of second-placed HPE. Ubiquiti continued its rapid ascent, surging 47.1% YoY to $300 million (an 11% market share); while Huawei rebounded with 33.7% growth to $238 million (a 9% market share).
Further info: IDC: Enterprise WLAN Market Grew 7.8% in the Third Quarter of 2025
Cellular IoT: Smart meters, POS devices surge in India
Global cellular IoT module shipments increased 10% YoY in Q3 2025, decelerating from 17% growth in Q2 as lower selling prices strained margins, according to Counterpoint Research.
There were still some bright spots. Shipments in India rose 40% YoY, driven by smart meters and POS terminals. Those verticals also fuelled growth in China, which saw a 7% YoY increase.
Quectel maintained global leadership, with a strong share in both Chinese and overseas markets, followed by China Mobile and SUNSEA. Lierda was a notable riser, posting 73% YoY growth. Telit Cinterion was the top non-Chinese supplier.
In a fragmented standards landscape, Cat-1 bis has emerged as the preferred solution, accounting for nearly half of Q3 shipments. 5G RedCap is waiting in the wings, but pricing and network coverage conditions are not yet ripe for its take-off.
Further info: Counterpoint Research: Global Cellular IoT Module Shipments Up 10% YoY in Q3 2025
Tablets: Best year since pandemic boom
The tablet market saw 9.8% YoY shipment growth in Q4, bringing full-year 2025 volumes to 162 million units – the highest annual total since the pandemic boom year of 2020, according to Omdia.
Growth was artificially inflated by inventory pull-forward as vendors got out ahead of of anticipated memory constraints and price hikes. Omdia has warned that tablet demand will face increasing pressure in 2026 as component costs rise.
Apple looks poised to extend its lead in this environment. The Cupertino company shipped 19.6 million iPads (up 16.5% YoY) and captured 44.9% market share in Q4. Samsung declined 9.2% to 6.4 million units (a 14.7% market share), despite new product launches. Lenovo was the standout performer, posting 36% YoY growth to 3.9 million units on the back of aggressive expansion in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific markets.
Further info: Omdia: Global tablet shipments grew 10% in 2025 as market nears slowdown
PCs: Healthy volume growth, costs to increase
Over 270 million laptops and desktop computers were shipped in 2025 – a 9% YoY increase and a significant turnaround for a market that has seen weak performance since hitting its peak in 2021.
Business purchases helped to drive growth in Q4 as Microsoft discontinued support for Windows 10 machines. Expectations of further price hikes also played a role in prompting businesses to upgrade their hardware.
According to Omdia, the cost of DRAM soared by up to 70% during 2025, with a further 50% increase forecast for Q1 of 2026 alone. SSD prices rose 40% during the same period. As the bill of materials expands, analysts expect many of these costs to be passed on to consumers.
The top five vendors (Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple and ASUS) accounted for 75% of Q4 volumes, up from previous quarters. Lenovo led both quarterly and full-year rankings, solidifying its position ahead of HP and Dell. Dell and ASUS each posted notable growth figures in Q4.
Further info:
Gartner: Worldwide PC Shipments Increased 9.3% in Fourth Quarter of 2025 and 9.1% for the Full Year
Smartphones: Market to contract in 2026
Global smartphone revenues hit a record high in Q4 2025 as the average selling price climbed above the $400 level for the first time, according to Counterpoint Research. Full-year 2025 shipments reached around 1.25 billion units – a 2% uptick on an annual basis.
At the same time, the memory shortage has caused major disruptions. Here is one recent description of the supply chain math:
Taking a mainstream 8GB + 256GB memory configuration as an example, estimated contract prices in 1Q26 have surged nearly 200% YoY—roughly tripling from the same period last year. Memory, which historically accounted for around 10–15% of a smartphone’s BOM, has now surged to 30–40%.
That comes from TrendForce, which is forecasting a dramatic 10% YoY drop in smartphone shipments for the full year 2026. Last December, IDC projected a 5.2% shipment decline in the most pessimistic scenario, while Counterpoint expected only a 2.1% contraction.
Supply constraints will affect various brands differently. Those selling the highest-end devices will have a greater ability to absorb cost increases or pass them on to consumers. Those with the highest volumes and the best supplier relationships will have an edge in accessing the limited supply of memory chips that come onto the market.
These factors could benefit Apple and Samsung, which consolidated their leading positions in 2025. According to Omdia, each accounted for 19% market share in 2025 on the back of identical 7% volume growth.
Their main rivals, the Chinese brands, may face pressure as rising memory costs disproportionately impact budget-focused offerings. Recent media reports suggest that vendors including Xiaomi and Transsion have slashed 2026 shipment targets by tens of millions of units. Analysts expect companies with robust supply chain relationships, including Huawei, to have opportunities for expansion in this environment.
Uncertainty over component costs, end prices and shipment volume could make licensing negotiations even more complex in the year ahead.
Further info:
Sisvel Insights Market Data Digest is a regular feature aggregating commercial information from the major SEP licensing verticals. Our goal is to provide patent licensing executives with a grasp of the commercial and competitive dynamics in the market for connected devices. The digest exclusively draws on publicly available information from third parties, all of which is available from the original sources via links. Verticals with extensive data available (eg, smartphones) will be covered every quarter. Other sectors will be covered as and when new data is published.
